COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

ADP (ADP) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$19.20 per share
Current Price $208.28
Margin of Safety -90.8%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-77x5fwy2> ADP is a mature compounder. An 8% rate accounts for consistent high single-digit revenue growth and modest margin expansion.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-77x5fwy2> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. For a defensive company with high recurring revenue, a 9% discount rate provides a solid required return.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.0%

" data-astro-cid-77x5fwy2> Long-term nominal GDP growth is ~3%. ADP operates as a tax on employment; they will grow steadily alongside the overall economy.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
2.0% $23.04 $19.20 $16.46 $14.40 $12.80
2.5% $25.60 $20.95 $17.72 $15.36 $13.55
3.0% $28.80 $23.04 $19.20 $16.46 $14.40
3.5% $32.91 $25.60 $20.95 $17.72 $15.36
4.0% $38.40 $28.80 $23.04 $19.20 $16.46

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E multiple?

Westmount Research. "ADP (ADP) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, 2026-03-19.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.