COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$195.50 per share
Current Price $211.86
Margin of Safety -7.7%
OVERVALUED

Steady Cash Flow in Niche Markets

Assurant operates in profitable, specialized niches within the insurance market, particularly mobile device protection and lender-placed housing insurance. These areas provide reliable, recurring cash flows.

While the company generates consistent returns, the lack of robust organic growth and exposure to catastrophic weather events and consumer spending cycles limit its upside. The current valuation appears slightly stretched relative to its long-term growth profile.

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
4.0%

A 4.0% growth rate is assumed, reflecting steady but mature growth in its core device protection and specialty housing markets.

Discount Rate (WACC)
8.5%

An 8.5% discount rate accounts for the inherent risks in the insurance sector, including catastrophe exposure and regulatory shifts.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.0%

A 2.0% terminal rate aligns with long-term inflation and GDP expectations for a mature financial services firm.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
1.0% $231.05 $195.50 $169.43 $149.50 $133.76
1.5% $254.15 $211.79 $181.54 $158.84 $141.19
2.0% $282.39 $231.05 $195.50 $169.43 $149.50
2.5% $317.69 $254.15 $211.79 $181.54 $158.84
3.0% $363.07 $282.39 $231.05 $195.50 $169.43

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why a 4% growth rate?

This reflects the mature nature of Assurant's core markets. While they hold strong share, the overall market growth is constrained by device upgrade cycles and housing market dynamics.

What are the main risks to this valuation?

Key risks include the loss of major B2B partners, unexpected severity in weather-related claims, and macroeconomic downturns impacting consumer spending on devices.

Is Assurant a buy at this price?

Based on this DCF model, the stock is currently slightly overvalued, suggesting it may be more appropriate for income-oriented investors rather than those seeking significant capital appreciation.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.