An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
"> AppLovin's AXON 2.0 AI engine has significantly improved ROAS for advertisers, driving a massive surge in Software Platform revenue. With exceptionally high gross margins in this segment, operating leverage allows FCF to grow substantially. 20% projects continued dominance in mobile app monetization.
"> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. Given AppLovin's high beta, concentration risk in gaming/apps, and cyclicality of ad spend, a higher discount rate is warranted. We use 11% to demand higher returns for taking on ad-tech risk.
"> Long-term nominal GDP growth is ~3%. We add 0.5% because AppLovin's AI ad targeting engine acts as a strong competitive moat in mobile ecosystems, allowing slightly above-GDP growth indefinitely.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $5,481.00 | $5,481.00 | $2,218.50 | $1,390.70 | $1,012.79 |
| 3.0% | $5,481.00 | $20,706.00 | $3,158.54 | $1,709.67 | $1,172.04 |
| 3.5% | $5,481.00 | $5,481.00 | $5,481.00 | $2,218.50 | $1,390.70 |
| 4.0% | $5,481.00 | $5,481.00 | $20,706.00 | $3,158.54 | $1,709.67 |
| 4.5% | $5,481.00 | $5,481.00 | $5,481.00 | $5,481.00 | $2,218.50 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Westmount Research. "AppLovin (APP) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 19, 2026.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.