Historical Average Stock Market Return
Complete S&P 500 returns since 1928, including dividends and inflation (real returns). Filter, sort, and analyze trailing historical market performance.
Methodology & Data Sources
All historical stock market return data is sourced primarily from the datasets maintained by Aswath Damodaran at NYU Stern School of Business.
Data covers the period from 1928 to the present. The 'Nominal' returns include both the capital appreciation (price return) of the S&P 500 and the reinvestment of dividends.
'Real' returns are adjusted for inflation (CPI). For multi-year periods (10Y, 20Y, 30Y), returns are calculated as the geometric mean (annualized return), accurately reflecting the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over that specific timeframe. Missing recent inflation data utilizes approximated BLS CPI estimates where applicable. Always remember that historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average stock market return?
Historically, the average stock market return (measured by the S&P 500) has been roughly 10% per year before inflation, assuming dividends are reinvested. When adjusted for inflation (real return), the historical average is closer to 7% per year.
What is the average S&P 500 return over 10 years?
Over most 10-year rolling periods, the S&P 500 has delivered positive returns. Historically, the annualized nominal return over a 10-year period typically ranges from 8% to 12%, depending on the starting valuation and economic conditions.
Does the average stock market return include dividends?
When financial professionals cite the 10% historical average return of the S&P 500, they are generally referring to the 'total return,' which includes both price appreciation and the reinvestment of dividends. Without dividends, the average price return is lower.
What is the inflation-adjusted (real) stock market return?
The inflation-adjusted, or 'real', stock market return accounts for the loss of purchasing power over time. Historically, while the nominal return of the S&P 500 is about 10%, the real return averages roughly 6.5% to 7% per year.
What are the best and worst years in stock market history?
The best year for the S&P 500 was 1933 with a nearly 50% return following the Great Depression. The worst year was 1931, when the index lost over 43%. More recently, the 2008 financial crisis saw a drop of roughly 37%.