An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
Cboe Global Markets operates one of the most enviable business models in finance: a toll bridge for risk management and speculation. Through its exclusive licenses for S&P 500 index options (SPX) and its ownership of the VIX methodology, Cboe has established a near-monopoly in the trading of broad market volatility. This structural advantage ensures that whenever macroeconomic uncertainty rises, Cboe's transaction revenues follow suit.
While the company faces intense competition in standard equity routing and multi-listed options, its core proprietary products provide a highly durable, high-margin revenue stream. The recent structural shift towards zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options has further entrenched Cboe's utility for both institutional hedgers and retail speculators. However, the current valuation implies an expectation of persistently high volatility and volume, leaving little margin of safety if markets enter a prolonged, subdued period.
A 6.5% growth rate is projected, driven by the structural growth in options trading volumes, particularly short-dated options, offset by potential periods of low volatility. The expansion of data and access solutions provides a steady, recurring revenue base.
An 8.5% discount rate reflects Cboe's stable cash flows and deep economic moat, balanced against the inherent cyclicality of trading volumes tied to macroeconomic market volatility.
A 2.5% terminal growth rate aligns with long-term macroeconomic GDP growth expectations, recognizing that exchange operators are fundamentally tied to the broad growth of financial markets.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | $214.20 | $178.50 | $153.00 | $133.88 | $119.00 |
| 2.0% | $238.00 | $194.73 | $164.77 | $142.80 | $126.00 |
| 2.5% | $267.75 | $214.20 | $178.50 | $153.00 | $133.87 |
| 3.0% | $306.00 | $238.00 | $194.73 | $164.77 | $142.80 |
| 3.5% | $357.00 | $267.75 | $214.20 | $178.50 | $153.00 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Gemini projects 6.5% FCF growth based on the continued secular trend of increased options usage, particularly 0DTEs, alongside steady growth in their recurring data and access solutions businesses.
The primary risk is a prolonged 'volatility crush'—a sustained period of calm, rising equity markets which typically depresses trading volumes in Cboe's highly lucrative VIX and SPX products.
Yes. Its moat is rooted in exclusive intellectual property rights to the most heavily traded index products globally. Replicating the liquidity pool and regulatory approval for a competing product is nearly impossible.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.