An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
Church & Dwight's true value lies in its portfolio of essential consumer brands. This portfolio generates highly predictable cash flows, as consumer purchasing behavior for these staples remains resilient regardless of broader economic conditions.
The company's proven strategy of acquiring and integrating niche brands provides a reliable engine for long-term, steady growth. Its defensive posture makes it an attractive core holding in any portfolio.
A 5% growth rate is applied, reflecting Church & Dwight's consistent, single-digit organic growth supplemented by strategic bolt-on acquisitions in the consumer staples space.
An 8.0% discount rate reflects the highly defensive nature of the company's product portfolio and its consistent cash flow generation, mitigating risk.
A 2.0% terminal growth rate aligns with long-term inflation targets and population growth, acknowledging the mature nature of the consumer goods industry.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | $122.88 | $102.40 | $87.77 | $76.80 | $68.27 |
| 1.5% | $136.53 | $111.71 | $94.52 | $81.92 | $72.28 |
| 2.0% | $153.60 | $122.88 | $102.40 | $87.77 | $76.80 |
| 2.5% | $175.54 | $136.53 | $111.71 | $94.52 | $81.92 |
| 3.0% | $204.80 | $153.60 | $122.88 | $102.40 | $87.77 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
This rate balances the inherently slower growth of mature consumer staples with the company's successful history of strategic acquisitions.
Private labels present an ongoing threat, but Church & Dwight's strong brand loyalty and competitive pricing mitigate this risk.
The lower discount rate reflects the reduced volatility and lower risk associated with providing essential, everyday consumer products.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.