COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Ecolab (ECL) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$16.10 per share
Current Price $261.84
Margin of Safety -93.9%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

"> Ecolab benefits from a razor-and-blades model where its installed base of dispensers generates predictable, recurring chemical sales. The company has demonstrated consistent pricing power and steady volume growth. We assume an 8% FCF growth rate, which aligns with long-term historical averages and expected margin expansion.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

"> Ecolab benefits from a razor-and-blades model where its installed base of dispensers generates predictable, recurring chemical sales. The company has demonstrated consistent pricing power and steady volume growth. We assume an 8% FCF growth rate, which aligns with long-term historical averages and expected margin expansion.

Terminal Growth Rate
9.0%

"> Ecolab benefits from a razor-and-blades model where its installed base of dispensers generates predictable, recurring chemical sales. The company has demonstrated consistent pricing power and steady volume growth. We assume an 8% FCF growth rate, which aligns with long-term historical averages and expected margin expansion.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%
8.0% $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10
8.5% $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10
9.0% $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10
9.5% $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10
10.0% $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does the intrinsic value often lag the current market price?

Westmount Research. "Ecolab (ECL) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 19, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.