COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$12.00 per share
Current Price $294.56
Margin of Safety -95.9%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-toqgwvpg> Hilton's franchise model requires very little capital to scale. They have a massive pipeline of new rooms. We project 8% growth, accounting for room additions and RevPAR increases, while remaining conservative against travel cyclicality.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-toqgwvpg> With the 10Y Treasury at 4.18% and a standard equity risk premium, a 9% required rate of return is appropriate for a mature, highly profitable, but moderately leveraged company like Hilton.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.0%

" data-astro-cid-toqgwvpg> Hospitality is tied to global economic growth and inflation. 3% assumes Hilton maintains its competitive moat and grows slightly above inflation in perpetuity.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
2.0% $78.67 $12.00 $6.50 $4.45 $3.39
2.5% $12.00 $20.82 $8.43 $5.28 $3.85
3.0% $12.00 $78.67 $12.00 $6.50 $4.45
3.5% $12.00 $12.00 $20.82 $8.43 $5.28
4.0% $12.00 $12.00 $78.67 $12.00 $6.50

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.