COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$12.60 per share
Current Price $20.20
Margin of Safety -37.6%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-ruwom5r2> ICE has grown FCF consistently via organic expansion and strategic M&A (like Black Knight). With high recurring revenue in its data segment, 8% FCF growth represents realistic compounding without aggressive optimism.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-ruwom5r2> The 10-Year Treasury is 4.18%. With a lower beta than high-beta tech, ICE represents stable, utility-like financial infrastructure. A 9% required return adequately compensates for equity risk without overly penalizing its sticky cash flows.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.5%

" data-astro-cid-ruwom5r2> Financial markets and data needs grow structurally alongside global GDP and inflation. ICE's pricing power ensures it can pass on inflation, making 3.5% a fair perpetual growth rate for its quasi-monopolistic assets.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
2.5% $15.40 $12.60 $10.66 $9.24 $8.15
3.0% $17.33 $13.86 $11.55 $9.90 $8.66
3.5% $19.80 $15.40 $12.60 $10.66 $9.24
4.0% $23.10 $17.32 $13.86 $11.55 $9.90
4.5% $27.72 $19.80 $15.40 $12.60 $10.66

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use a 9% discount rate for ICE?

Westmount Research. "Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 20, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.