An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
Intercontinental Exchange is fundamentally a toll road for global finance. While it owns the iconic New York Stock Exchange, its true power lies in its proprietary data feeds, clearinghouses, and its rapidly expanding mortgage technology platform. These services are not optional for institutional players; they are essential infrastructure.
This dominant market position results in highly predictable, recurring revenue streams and substantial free cash flow generation (currently $3.48B). While the calculated intrinsic value suggests the stock is currently trading at a premium to its discounted future cash flows, this premium is arguably justified by the virtually insurmountable barriers to entry and the monopolistic characteristics of its core assets.
An 8.0% growth rate is assumed, driven by the highly predictable, recurring revenue from its data services segment and a projected cyclical recovery in the mortgage technology business. This leverages the current base FCF of approximately $3.48B.
A relatively low discount rate of 7.5% reflects ICE's incredibly wide economic moat, monopolistic exchange assets, and the utility-like stability of its cash flows.
A 3.0% terminal growth rate aligns with long-term global economic growth, appropriate for a mature, critical financial infrastructure provider.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | $178.01 | $138.45 | $113.28 | $95.85 | $83.07 |
| 2.5% | $207.68 | $155.76 | $124.60 | $103.84 | $89.00 |
| 3.0% | $249.21 | $178.01 | $138.45 | $113.28 | $95.85 |
| 3.5% | $311.51 | $207.67 | $155.76 | $124.60 | $103.84 |
| 4.0% | $415.35 | $249.21 | $178.01 | $138.45 | $113.28 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
ICE provides the essential platforms, data, and clearing services that financial markets require to function. Institutions cannot easily substitute ICE's proprietary data or the liquidity of its exchanges, making its services critical infrastructure.
The 7.5% discount rate is lower than average because ICE operates with exceptionally wide moats, regulatory protection, and highly predictable, recurring revenue, significantly reducing the risk profile of its future cash flows.
Based on the latest data, ICE generates approximately $3.48 billion in annual free cash flow.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.