COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$132.70 per share
Current Price $236.24
Margin of Safety -43.8%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
0.0%

" data-astro-cid-qej2bcqa> Derived directly from the company's multi-year historical Free Cash Flow CAGR. We cap it structurally at 5% to prevent overestimating growth in cyclical boom years, ensuring a conservative base.

Discount Rate (WACC)
4.2%

" data-astro-cid-qej2bcqa> Derived directly from the company's multi-year historical Free Cash Flow CAGR. We cap it structurally at 5% to prevent overestimating growth in cyclical boom years, ensuring a conservative base.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.1%

" data-astro-cid-qej2bcqa> Derived directly from the company's multi-year historical Free Cash Flow CAGR. We cap it structurally at 5% to prevent overestimating growth in cyclical boom years, ensuring a conservative base.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.1%1.6%2.1%2.6%3.1%
1.1% $255.57 $132.70 $89.62 $67.65 $54.33
1.6% $475.89 $174.69 $106.98 $77.10 $60.27
2.1% $3,450.20 $255.57 $132.70 $89.62 $67.65
2.6% $132.70 $475.89 $174.69 $106.98 $77.10
3.1% $132.70 $3,450.20 $255.57 $132.70 $89.62

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.