COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Marriott (MAR) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$26.20 per share
Current Price $327.30
Margin of Safety -92.0%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

for the three biggest levers.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-5rgrdpgl> The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.18%. Adding an equity risk premium for Marriott gives us a required return of 9%. This is slightly lower than a tech stock due to Marriott's mature, predictable fee stream, but still demands a solid return to justify equity risk.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.0%

" data-astro-cid-5rgrdpgl> We assume 3% perpetual growth. Travel generally grows slightly faster than global GDP as the middle class expands worldwide, but given Marriott's already massive scale, 3% is a prudent terminal rate.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
2.0% $31.44 $26.20 $22.46 $19.65 $17.47
2.5% $34.93 $28.58 $24.18 $20.96 $18.49
3.0% $39.30 $31.44 $26.20 $22.46 $19.65
3.5% $44.91 $34.93 $28.58 $24.18 $20.96
4.0% $52.40 $39.30 $31.44 $26.20 $22.46

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.