COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

News Corp (NWS) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$29.50 per share
Current Price $27.24
Margin of Safety 8.3%
UNDERVALUED

The Digital Transition Valuation

News Corp's current valuation reflects a company in the late stages of a complex transition from print to digital. While top-line growth is modest (5.5%), the company generates a healthy $1.71B in free cash flow, underscoring the profitability of its specialized data assets and digital real estate platforms.

The market appears to be fairly pricing the stock, balancing the steady cash generation of Dow Jones against the ongoing headwinds in traditional publishing. At current levels, NWS offers a small margin of safety, trading near its intrinsic value based on conservative cash flow projections.

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
4.0%

A modest 4% growth rate reflects the mature nature of News Corp's business. While digital real estate and Dow Jones provide growth engines, they are partially offset by secular declines in traditional print and publishing segments.

Discount Rate (WACC)
8.5%

An 8.5% discount rate accounts for the company's stable but slow-growing profile, with a beta near 1.0 (0.969) indicating average market risk.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.0%

A 2% terminal growth rate aligns with long-term inflation and GDP expectations, suitable for a diversified legacy media conglomerate.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
1.0% $34.86 $29.50 $25.57 $22.56 $20.18
1.5% $38.35 $31.96 $27.39 $23.97 $21.31
2.0% $42.61 $34.86 $29.50 $25.57 $22.56
2.5% $47.94 $38.35 $31.96 $27.39 $23.97
3.0% $54.79 $42.61 $34.86 $29.50 $25.57

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Gemini pick a 4% growth rate for News Corp?

The 4% rate is a blended assumption. It accounts for higher expected growth in the digital real estate and professional information segments, dragged down by stagnation or slight declines in traditional news and book publishing.

What discount rate was used for News Corp's DCF?

An 8.5% discount rate was used, reflecting the company's average market risk profile and relatively predictable cash flows from its diversified portfolio.

Is it safe to rely on AI for stock valuation?

No. This analysis is a demonstration of AI reasoning based on a specific set of inputs and rigid formulas. It is not financial advice.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.