An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
Realty Income offers one of the most predictable cash flow streams in the public markets, underpinned by its vast portfolio of triple-net lease properties. The company's focus on necessity-based, e-commerce-resistant retail tenants provides significant insulation from economic cyclicality. The consistent track record of dividend increases across various market cycles demonstrates the resilience of this model.
While the stock is often treated as a bond proxy and thus sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, its underlying business continues to generate growing, high-quality cash flows. The current valuation presents a compelling entry point for long-term income investors, offering a margin of safety on a best-in-class real estate asset.
A 4% growth rate reflects steady rent escalations and continued, albeit measured, portfolio expansion. This conservative estimate accounts for the mature nature of the business and the currently elevated cost of capital for acquisitions.
A 7.5% discount rate is utilized, balancing the highly predictable nature of its triple-net lease cash flows and investment-grade tenant base against the sensitivity of REITs to macroeconomic interest rate movements.
A 2% terminal growth rate aligns with long-term inflation targets and reflects the sustainable, slow-and-steady growth profile characteristic of high-quality real estate portfolios.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | $92.28 | $75.50 | $63.88 | $55.37 | $48.85 |
| 1.5% | $103.81 | $83.05 | $69.21 | $59.32 | $51.91 |
| 2.0% | $118.64 | $92.28 | $75.50 | $63.88 | $55.37 |
| 2.5% | $138.42 | $103.81 | $83.05 | $69.21 | $59.32 |
| 3.0% | $166.10 | $118.64 | $92.28 | $75.50 | $63.88 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
The 4% rate is a blend of contractual rent increases built into existing leases and the anticipated yield from new property acquisitions, adjusted for a normalized cost of capital environment.
A 7.5% rate was chosen to reflect the low fundamental business risk of its diversified, high-credit-quality tenant base, offset slightly by its inherent sensitivity to broader interest rate trends.
No. The intrinsic value represents the estimated present value of future cash flows based on the stated assumptions. It is a theoretical baseline, not a short-term price prediction.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.