COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$88.31 per share
Current Price $88.31
Margin of Safety 0.0%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
3.0%

Here is the year-by-year projection of Free Cash Flow, discounted back to present value (PV). All figures in millions USD.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

Here is the year-by-year projection of Free Cash Flow, discounted back to present value (PV). All figures in millions USD.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.0%

Here is the year-by-year projection of Free Cash Flow, discounted back to present value (PV). All figures in millions USD.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
2.0% $105.97 $88.31 $75.69 $66.23 $58.87
2.5% $117.75 $96.34 $81.52 $70.65 $62.34
3.0% $132.47 $105.97 $88.31 $75.69 $66.23
3.5% $151.39 $117.75 $96.34 $81.52 $70.65
4.0% $176.62 $132.47 $105.97 $88.31 $75.69

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the share count so low compared to the price?

Westmount Research. "O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.