COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Progressive (PGR) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$87.70 per share
Current Price $201.44
Margin of Safety -56.5%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-b4nscx23> Progressive consistently grows premiums through advanced telematics and disciplined underwriting. 10% cash flow growth reflects sustained market share gains in the auto insurance sector while maintaining target profit margins.

Discount Rate (WACC)
7.0%

" data-astro-cid-b4nscx23> Progressive consistently grows premiums through advanced telematics and disciplined underwriting. 10% cash flow growth reflects sustained market share gains in the auto insurance sector while maintaining target profit margins.

Terminal Growth Rate
7.0%

" data-astro-cid-b4nscx23> Progressive consistently grows premiums through advanced telematics and disciplined underwriting. 10% cash flow growth reflects sustained market share gains in the auto insurance sector while maintaining target profit margins.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%
6.0% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70
6.5% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70
7.0% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70
7.5% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70
8.0% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple?

Westmount Research. "Progressive (PGR) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.