Recession Indicators Dashboard 2026
Real-time tracking of 8 leading economic indicators to gauge the probability of a US recession. Data is dynamically updated and compared against historical recession triggers.
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
Sahm Rule Indicator
Unemployment Claims
Consumer Confidence
Current Indicator Readings
| Indicator Name ↕ | Latest Value ↕ | Date ↕ | Recession Threshold ↕ | Status ↕ |
|---|
Methodology & Data Sources
This dashboard aggregates leading macroeconomic indicators utilized by economists to forecast economic contractions. The dataset is sourced directly from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).
- Yield Curve Inversion (T10Y2Y): The spread between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity rates. A negative value historically precedes recessions.
- Sahm Rule (SAHMREALTIME): Signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its minimum during the previous 12 months.
- Initial Claims (ICSA): A leading indicator of labor market distress. Sustained spikes correlate with rising unemployment.
- Consumer Confidence (UMCSENT): University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Sharp drops indicate reduced consumer spending, a primary driver of US GDP.
- Credit Spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2): ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread. Rising spreads indicate tightening financial conditions and increased default risk.
- Housing Starts (HOUST): New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started. A significant drop signals a contraction in real estate and construction.
- Durable Goods Orders (DGORDER): Manufacturers' New Orders. Declining orders indicate reduced business investment and consumer demand for big-ticket items.
- Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): Total nonfarm employment. A consistent decline signifies a shrinking labor market and broader economic slowdown.
Frequently Asked Questions
The most reliable leading indicators include the 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve inversion, the Sahm Rule (unemployment rate momentum), and the Leading Economic Index (LEI).
While no single indicator guarantees a recession, tracking multiple metrics like consumer confidence, credit spreads, and yield curves provides a probabilistic assessment of economic downturns.
A yield curve inversion occurs when short-term interest rates (like the 2-Year Treasury) rise above long-term rates (like the 10-Year Treasury). Historically, this has preceded every major US recession.
The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its minimum during the previous 12 months.
Recession probability models rely on the aggregate data of these 8 leading indicators. When multiple metrics breach their historical trigger thresholds simultaneously, the probability of a near-term recession increases significantly.
Cite This Page
Westmount Fundamentals. "Recession Indicators Dashboard 2026." westmountfundamentals.com/recession-indicator-dashboard-2026, 2026.