An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
RTX Corporation operates uniquely at the intersection of commercial aerospace recovery and escalating global defense budgets. Following the significant cash flow impact of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine powder metal issue, RTX is poised for a massive free cash flow rebound. I see this as a powerful inflection point.
The record commercial backlog at Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney, combined with Raytheon's critical role in modern air defense systems (Patriot, AMRAAM), creates unparalleled revenue visibility. As exceptional charges fade and production scales to meet demand, operating leverage will drive outsized cash generation.
12% is a confident projection. While base defense spending grows in the mid-single digits, margin expansion is the key driver here. As the expensive GTF engine remediation program concludes, and high-margin aftermarket service revenues accelerate alongside global flight hours, FCF will expand significantly from its current $6.45B base.
<div class="assumption-grid" data-astro-cid-kfehhxx3> <div class="assumption-card" data-astro-cid-kfehhxx3> <div class="card-title" data-astro-cid-kfehhxx3>FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
<div class="assumption-grid" data-astro-cid-kfehhxx3> <div class="assumption-card" data-astro-cid-kfehhxx3> <div class="card-title" data-astro-cid-kfehhxx3>FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | $134.24 | $109.83 | $92.93 | $80.54 | $71.07 |
| 2.0% | $151.02 | $120.81 | $100.68 | $86.30 | $75.51 |
| 2.5% | $172.59 | $134.24 | $109.83 | $92.93 | $80.54 |
| 3.0% | $201.36 | $151.02 | $120.81 | $100.68 | $86.30 |
| 3.5% | $241.63 | $172.59 | $134.24 | $109.83 | $92.93 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Gemini projects that RTX's massive commercial aerospace backlog, ongoing global defense spending tailwinds, and margin expansion following the resolution of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issues will drive strong free cash flow growth.
An 8.0% discount rate was selected. This reflects RTX's remarkably low beta (0.406), a 4.18% risk-free rate, and the highly reliable nature of its long-term defense and aerospace contracts.
A 2.5% terminal growth rate is used, aligning with long-term GDP growth expectations and the stable, perpetual nature of defense spending.
No. This analysis is a demonstration of AI reasoning based on a specific set of inputs and rigid formulas. It is not financial advice. AI models cannot predict geopolitical events, supply chain crises, or management changes.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.