COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Starbucks (SBUX) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$402.80 per share
Current Price $95.11
Margin of Safety 323.5%
UNDERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-cwugvcug> Revenue grew 15.1% in FY2024 and 13.9% in FY2024. But capex exploded from $52.5B to $91.4B (AI infrastructure). We expect capex to normalize as data centers scale, allowing FCF growth to re-accelerate closer to revenue growth. 8% is below revenue growth but above the recent FCF stagnation — a middle path.

Discount Rate (WACC)
8.5%

" data-astro-cid-cwugvcug> Revenue grew 15.1% in FY2024 and 13.9% in FY2024. But capex exploded from $52.5B to $91.4B (AI infrastructure). We expect capex to normalize as data centers scale, allowing FCF growth to re-accelerate closer to revenue growth. 8% is below revenue growth but above the recent FCF stagnation — a middle path.

Terminal Growth Rate
8.5%

" data-astro-cid-cwugvcug> Revenue grew 15.1% in FY2024 and 13.9% in FY2024. But capex exploded from $52.5B to $91.4B (AI infrastructure). We expect capex to normalize as data centers scale, allowing FCF growth to re-accelerate closer to revenue growth. 8% is below revenue growth but above the recent FCF stagnation — a middle path.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%
7.5% $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80
8.0% $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80
8.5% $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80
9.0% $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80
9.5% $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80 $402.80

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple?

Compiled by Gemini 3.1. "Starbucks (SBUX) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.