COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

TransDigm (TDG) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$9.10 per share
Current Price $30.00
Margin of Safety -69.7%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
12.0%

" data-astro-cid-57ovlnyb> TransDigm has historically grown FCF at robust double-digit rates, fueled by a recovering commercial aerospace market and aggressive pricing on monopolistic aftermarket parts. 12% is a conservative estimate for continued strong execution and opportunistic bolt-on acquisitions.

Discount Rate (WACC)
12.0%

" data-astro-cid-57ovlnyb> TransDigm has historically grown FCF at robust double-digit rates, fueled by a recovering commercial aerospace market and aggressive pricing on monopolistic aftermarket parts. 12% is a conservative estimate for continued strong execution and opportunistic bolt-on acquisitions.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.5%

" data-astro-cid-57ovlnyb> Air travel and defense spending have proven to be incredibly durable over decades. A 3.5% terminal growth rate assumes TransDigm will continue to capture a growing share of global GDP as airplanes require continuous maintenance and component replacement indefinitely.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
2.5% $10.31 $9.10 $8.14 $7.37 $6.73
3.0% $11.05 $9.67 $8.59 $7.73 $7.03
3.5% $11.90 $10.31 $9.10 $8.14 $7.37
4.0% $12.89 $11.05 $9.67 $8.59 $7.74
4.5% $14.06 $11.90 $10.31 $9.10 $8.14

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the DCF value so much lower than the market price?

Westmount Research. "TransDigm (TDG) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, May 18, 2024.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.