COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Waste Management (WM) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$25.20 per share
Current Price $2,816.00
Margin of Safety -99.1%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
7.0%

"> WM enjoys strong pricing power due to localized monopolies (landfills). A 7% growth rate is conservative but realistic, reflecting organic volume growth, steady price increases, and investments in recycling and renewable natural gas.

Discount Rate (WACC)
7.5%

"> Given a 10Y Treasury yield of 4.18%, a 7.5% discount rate implies an equity risk premium suitable for a highly defensive, utility-like business. WM's revenue is highly visible and resilient to economic downturns.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.0%

"> WM enjoys strong pricing power due to localized monopolies (landfills). A 7% growth rate is conservative but realistic, reflecting organic volume growth, steady price increases, and investments in recycling and renewable natural gas.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
2.0% $32.40 $25.20 $20.62 $17.45 $15.12
2.5% $37.80 $28.35 $22.68 $18.90 $16.20
3.0% $45.36 $32.40 $25.20 $20.62 $17.45
3.5% $56.70 $37.80 $28.35 $22.68 $18.90
4.0% $75.60 $45.36 $32.40 $25.20 $20.62

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.