An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
An independent two-stage discounted cash flow analysis generated by AI.
An independent two-stage discounted cash flow analysis generated by AI.
An independent two-stage discounted cash flow analysis generated by AI.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $653.00 | $507.89 | $415.55 | $351.62 | $304.73 |
| 3.5% | $761.84 | $571.38 | $457.10 | $380.92 | $326.50 |
| 4.0% | $914.20 | $653.00 | $507.89 | $415.55 | $351.62 |
| 4.5% | $1,142.75 | $761.83 | $571.38 | $457.10 | $380.92 |
| 5.0% | $1,523.67 | $914.20 | $653.00 | $507.89 | $415.55 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Competitors (like Novo Nordisk) expanding their pipelines, or regulatory actions forcing price caps on GLP-1 medications.
Inability to scale production facilities fast enough to meet projected revenue/FCF growth.
Long-term risks associated with patent expirations on core metabolic and oncological drugs.
Sustaining a 25% FCF growth over 5 years is statistically rare and requires flawless operational execution and sustained demand.
Gemini projects that unprecedented global demand for GLP-1 medications (Mounjaro, Zepbound) will drive massive revenue scaling. Current cash flows are heavily constrained by aggressive manufacturing capacity expansions; as these stabilize, cash conversion will accelerate dramatically over the next 5 years.
An 8.5% discount rate was selected. This reflects the 4.18% 10-Year Treasury risk-free rate, Lilly's remarkably low beta, and factors in a moderate premium to account for its high valuation dependency on a specific therapeutic category.
A 4.0% terminal growth rate, higher than average GDP growth, is justified by the permanent, secular demographic tailwinds of treating global obesity, diabetes, and related metabolic conditions over the decades ahead.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.