An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
Eli Lilly's Mounjaro/Zepbound franchise is creating the largest drug class in pharmaceutical history. GLP-1 agonists address obesity (a $100B+ TAM), diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and potentially Alzheimer's. Lilly has the best pipeline in pharma and is executing flawlessly on manufacturing scale-up.
However, the stock has more than tripled in two years, pricing in near-perfect execution. My aggressive 22% growth rate reflects genuine GLP-1 tailwinds, but the current price implies Lilly must sustain blockbuster growth for a decade while fending off competition from Novo Nordisk, Amgen, and eventual generics. The risk-reward at $820 is asymmetric to the downside.
Eli Lilly's Mounjaro/Zepbound franchise is creating the largest drug class in pharmaceutical history. GLP-1 agonists address obesity (a $100B+ TAM), diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and potentially A...
A 10.0% WACC reflects Eli Lilly and Company's risk profile, including sector-specific volatility, competitive dynamics, and macroeconomic sensitivity.
A 3.0% terminal rate assumes Eli Lilly and Company grows roughly in line with nominal GDP into perpetuity, reflecting the law of large numbers for a mature large-cap enterprise.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | $625.32 | $535.99 | $468.99 | $416.88 | $375.19 |
| 2.5% | $682.17 | $577.22 | $500.26 | $441.40 | $394.94 |
| 3.0% | $750.39 | $625.32 | $535.99 | $468.99 | $416.88 |
| 3.5% | $833.76 | $682.17 | $577.22 | $500.26 | $441.40 |
| 4.0% | $937.98 | $750.39 | $625.32 | $535.99 | $468.99 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
GLP-1 drugs (Mounjaro, Zepbound) are growing 50%+ annually and represent a generational pharmaceutical opportunity. Even after normalization, this drug class should drive 20%+ revenue growth through 2030.
By traditional DCF metrics, yes. The stock trades at 80x+ trailing FCF. Opus's intrinsic value is well below the current price, suggesting the market is pricing in a best-case scenario across all pipeline programs.
Manufacturing constraints limiting supply, unexpected GLP-1 safety signals in long-term studies, or Medicare price negotiation under the IRA could all meaningfully impact the valuation thesis.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.