COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

General Dynamics (GD) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$52.50 per share
Current Price $353.36
Margin of Safety -85.1%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

">General Dynamics possesses a robust order backlog across Aerospace (Gulfstream) and Marine Systems (submarine production). 8% FCF growth models stable execution on existing long-term contracts and modest margin expansion.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

">General Dynamics possesses a robust order backlog across Aerospace (Gulfstream) and Marine Systems (submarine production). 8% FCF growth models stable execution on existing long-term contracts and modest margin expansion.

Terminal Growth Rate
9.0%

">General Dynamics possesses a robust order backlog across Aerospace (Gulfstream) and Marine Systems (submarine production). 8% FCF growth models stable execution on existing long-term contracts and modest margin expansion.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%
8.0% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
8.5% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
9.0% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
9.5% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
10.0% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Key Risks

Defense Budget Constraints

General Dynamics is heavily reliant on U.S. defense spending. Any shifts in federal budget priorities or congressional impasses could reduce future contract awards.

Supply Chain & Execution

The submarine manufacturing base (Electric Boat) and aerospace (Gulfstream) face intense supply chain bottlenecks and labor constraints, which can compress margins or delay deliveries.

Fixed-Price Contracts

Inflationary pressures can hurt profitability on legacy fixed-price contracts if costs outpace negotiated pricing.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.