COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Johnson Controls (JCI) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$23.60 per share
Current Price $965.00
Margin of Safety -97.6%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-77xufajv> FCF in FY2025 was abnormally low ($965M) compared to historical norms (e.g., $1.78B in FY2023). We model an 8% growth rate as a modest recovery trajectory, capturing ongoing benefits from the OpenBlue platform and smart building investments.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.5%

" data-astro-cid-77xufajv> FCF in FY2025 was abnormally low ($965M) compared to historical norms (e.g., $1.78B in FY2023). We model an 8% growth rate as a modest recovery trajectory, capturing ongoing benefits from the OpenBlue platform and smart building investments.

Terminal Growth Rate
9.5%

" data-astro-cid-77xufajv> FCF in FY2025 was abnormally low ($965M) compared to historical norms (e.g., $1.78B in FY2023). We model an 8% growth rate as a modest recovery trajectory, capturing ongoing benefits from the OpenBlue platform and smart building investments.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%
8.5% $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60
9.0% $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60
9.5% $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60
10.0% $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60
10.5% $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60 $23.60

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple?

Westmount Research. "Johnson Controls (JCI) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.