COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$12.00 per share
Current Price $454.68
Margin of Safety -97.4%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-eotenzz6> Vertex dominates the cystic fibrosis (CF) market, providing highly predictable and growing cash flows. Revenue grew 8.9% in 2025 and ~11% in 2024. FCF has been lumpy due to acquisitions (like the drop in 2024), but underlying operations support a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-eotenzz6> Vertex dominates the cystic fibrosis (CF) market, providing highly predictable and growing cash flows. Revenue grew 8.9% in 2025 and ~11% in 2024. FCF has been lumpy due to acquisitions (like the drop in 2024), but underlying operations support a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years.

Terminal Growth Rate
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-eotenzz6> Vertex dominates the cystic fibrosis (CF) market, providing highly predictable and growing cash flows. Revenue grew 8.9% in 2025 and ~11% in 2024. FCF has been lumpy due to acquisitions (like the drop in 2024), but underlying operations support a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%
8.0% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
8.5% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
9.0% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
9.5% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
10.0% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple?

Westmount Research. "Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.